“With all due respect, that’s your problem, Mr. President,” Simpson said with a tight smile. His eyes locked with Mike’s. “It comes with winning elections, I believe,” the admiral added.
Mike felt himself smiling back thinly. “I believe you’re right,” he agreed. “And I promise we’ll give it our best shot. All the same, I doubt that anyone is going to be able to talk them into just letting you sail through their harbor.”
“Well, if Porter could run his gunboats past Vicksburg, I can run mine through Hamburg if I have to.” There was an undeniable edge of arrogance in Simpson’s voice, but to his own surprise, Mike found the other’s flat confidence immensely reassuring. He looked over at Jesse and saw the cold smile was still there. That, too, was reassuring.
“But by your best estimate, it’s going to be six weeks before you can be ready to start,” he pointed out.
“No,” Simpson corrected. “I said it would take six to eight weeks to get them launched. I’ll need at least one more week, probably two, to get any problems worked out and the crews sufficiently familiarized with them. Especially if I’m going to be taking them into the North Sea!”
“All right,” Mike accepted the correction. “Two and a half months, then. How long will it take you to get them to Luebeck or Wismar once you’re ready to go?”
“Um.” Simpson leaned back in his chair and looked thoughtful. “It’s roughly a hundred and fifty miles from here to Hamburg, as the river flows, and another fifty from there to the sea. Then up around the Skaw . . .” He rubbed his chin, then shrugged. “Call it six hundred and seventy-five miles from Hamburg to Luebeck.”
He sat back up and focused on Mike.
“I estimate that it should take us somewhere between three and ten days to get down the river itself. It depends on a lot of factors, including how much rain we get over the next few months, given how shallow parts of the river are between here and Hamburg. Once we get to sea, we should be able to make Luebeck within another three days, maximum. So take a worst-case estimate and say the entire trip will take two weeks.”
“That makes a total of three months,” Mike said. “Late December, at best, then.”
“At best,” Simpson agreed. “And while we’re thinking about timetables, let’s not forget that December gets us well into winter and that the Baltic sees a lot of ice in winter. I’m not sure what sort of icing conditions we can expect, either. From last winter’s numbers, though, I don’t expect it to be good.”
He paused, and Mike nodded. Average temperatures in the 17th century were lower than in the 21st, and the previous winter had been colder than any of the up-timers had expected.
“There’s no reason to expect this winter to be any warmer,” Simpson continued, “and ice is the reason Baltic shipping is so extremely seasonal in this century. It’s entirely possible that by the time we can get them to sea, the ice situation will be too bad for us to operate in the Baltic. By the same token, however, if we can’t operate there, then sure as hell no sail-powered navy’s going to be able to, either. So if winter shuts us down, it’ll also shut the other side down. And by the time the spring thaw sets in, I damned well know we’ll be ready to go after them.”
“I see,” Mike said, then frowned. “Either way, though, December is a long time to expect Gustavus to hold out in Luebeck. Especially if the Danes and this League of Ostend have complete control of Mecklenburg Bay for the next couple of months. Possibly even the entire Baltic; the western part of it, at least. And it sounds from his message like the only way he can get a garrison into Luebeck soon enough to do any good would be to strip it away from Wismar and the Stralsund Peninsula.”
“Of course he will.” Simpson sounded almost as if he were surprised Mike felt any need to comment on something so obvious. “He has to find the troops for Luebeck somewhere—where else could he look?” The admiral shook his head. “From my last information on his deployments, he ought to be able to scrape up enough additional troops to hold Wismar, at least. Probably have to just write off Stralsund and Rostock, though, at least for now. He can always take them back later, assuming we survive, but hanging onto Luebeck and Wismar will split the Danes’ attention. If he thinks he can do it, it’s certainly worth trying. But if he reduces Wismar’s garrison to cover Luebeck, we’re going to have to do something to keep the enemy from just walking in and taking it away before he can shift in fresh troops to cover it. He’s pretty much got to hold on to Wismar. With Luebeck invested in a siege, and Rostock and Stralsund in enemy hands, Wismar would be his only good outlet on the Baltic.”