assassination as KGB or GRU work designed both to create a pretext for
invasion and at the same time to remove the voice of liberal reform which
might otherwise have stood in the way, but without more facts at our disposal
that must remain an attractive but unconfirmed theory.”
It was a theory, Tarrant thought, that fit the facts damned well. Since
the collapse of the Commonwealth and the restoration of the Soviet Union, the
struggle between hard-liners in the military and the KGB against liberal
reformers and breakaway ethnic, religious, and political groups had been
turning Soviet government into a precarious balancing act. The President of
the new Union had started out as little more than a front man for the military
hard-liners who had reestablished the central authority, but lately he had
been striking out on his own, often in direct opposition to military
interests. Now that he was gone it looked as if the Soviet Union was speaking
with one voice again. And it was the old voice, the voice of Stalin and
Khrushchev, the voice of aggression, that was speaking this time.
Tarrant turned his attention back to Aiken, who was continuing from the
podium. “Regardless of Soviet intentions, we must accept the realities of the
position in Scandinavia. Gentlemen, Russian troops have already overrun most
of Finland. The government in Helsinki offered little more than a token
protest, and finally capitulated entirely four days ago. And the power
brought to bear in Norway will accomplish the something there in a very short
time unless the Norwegians receive significant support. That support, sadly,
is going to be slow to materialize. NATO is barely capable of functioning in
its old role now that the EEC countries are more interested in negotiating
compromises instead of taking a hard line. There are rumors that the Labor
government is going to lose a no-confidence vote in Britain, but even so, it
would take time for the Brits to mobilize anything. And you all know how
things stand with the United States.”
The map on the screen behind him changed. “So much for politics,” Aiken
said. “What concerns us more at the moment is the military situation in
Norway. Soviet troops officially crossed the borders in the early morning
hours of June fifth. Bear in mind the presence of the commando forces prior
to this, because they’ve had a significant impact upon the prosecution of the
campaign so far. The attack was spearheaded by two front-line motor rifle
divisions, the 45th and the 54th. These followed the lines of advance we
always assumed they’d use, with the 54th violating Finnish neutrality in order
to work its way behind the main lines of defense.”
Aiken took another sip of water as the slide changed to a close-up of
northern Norway. “Front-line defense of Norway was in the hands of the
so-called South Varanger Garrison, with a reserve force, the Finnmark Brigade,
to provide rapid backup in case of trouble. The paralysis of the Norwegian
government in the first few hours of the crisis caused delays in assembling
the reserve formations. They had just dispersed after an earlier mobilization
order, and the confusion did nothing to improve their situation.”
He jabbed at the map with a pointer. “Virtually the whole of the South
Varanger Garrison and a substantial part of the Finnmark Brigade was
surrounded and destroyed by Soviet forces here, at Tana, on the sixth.”
Another map showing the entire country appeared. “While this was
happening, the Soviets were carrying out systematic attacks on other parts of
the country as well. There are a few things to note … first, the fact that
the Red Banner Northern Fleet sortied from the Barents Sea the day before the
assassination. This could have been coincidence, of course, or a part of
ongoing saber-rattling. But it is significant that the fleet was escorting a
very large contingent of naval infantry and Spetsnaz troops. It hasn’t
received much notice in the press, but the Soviets have shifted their
shipbuilding program over to intensive production of amphibious vessels in the
last few years, to go along with their carrier program. A very large portion
of that sealift capability is currently in the Northern Fleet. When you add