“For the record,” said Vanzandt, “that ‘bracketing the enemy’ idea works both ways. Syria and Greece have been talking about forging a military relationship so that either of them could hit Turkey from two directions.”
“Talk about a marriage made in Hell,” said Lincoln. “Greece and Syria have virtually no other common ground.”
“Which should tell you how much they both hate Turkey,” Burkow pointed out.
“What about the other nations in the region?” asked the President.
“Iran will certainly intensify efforts to promote their puppet parties in Ankara,” Colon said, “calling for general strikes and marches, but they’ll stay out of this militarily. They don’t need to become involved.”
“Unless Armenia gets pulled in,” Lincoln said.
“Right,” said Colon, “which we’ll get to in a second. Iraq will almost certainly use the excuse of troop movements to attack Kurds operating on their border with Syria. And once Iraq is mobilized, there’s always the possibility that they’ll do something to provoke Kuwait or Saudi Arabia or even their old enemy Iran. But as Av said, the big question we have is about Armenia.”
The Secretary of State nodded. “Armenia is almost entirely Armenian Orthodox. If the government there fears that Turkey is going to go Islamic, they may have no choice but to jump into any conflict to protect their Own border. If that happens, Azerbaijan, which is mostly Muslim, will almost certainly use that as an excuse to try and reclaim the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which they lost to Armenia in skirmishes in 1994.”
“And which Turkey has publicly stated belongs to Azerbaijan,” Colon said. “That creates tension within Turkey for those who support their religious brethren in Armenia. On top of everything else, we could have civil war in Turkey over events in two neighboring countries.”
“This might be a good time to push the expansion of NATO,” Lincoln pointed out. “Bring Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into the fold to keep them stabilized. Use them as a breakwater.”
“We’ll never be able to make that happen in time,” Burkow said.
Lincoln smiled. “Then it’s best to start right away.”
The President shook his head. “Av, I don’t want us distracted by that now. Those countries will side with us and we’ll support them. My concern is stopping this situation before it gets that far.”
“Fine,” Lincoln said, raising his hands slightly. “Just a precaution.”
Hood looked at the new map which the Situation Room secretary had just put up on the screens. Armenia was situated with Turkey on its western border and Azerbaijan to the east. The Nagorno Karabakh region in Azerbaijan was claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“Obviously,” said Lincoln, “the greatest danger isn’t that Azerbaijan and Aremenia will go to war. The two of them put together are about half the size of Texas with a combined population of Greater Los Angeles. The danger is that Iran, located directly below them, and Russia, situated directly above them, will start moving troops to protect their own borders. Iran would love to get their hands on that region. It’s rich in oil, natural gas, copper, farmland, and other resources. And the hard-liners in Russia would love to get it back.”
“There are also devout Christians in Armenia,” said Vanzandt, “and Iran would love to clean them out. Without Armenia to serve as a counterbalance to the mostly Muslim population of Azerbaijan, the entire region becomes a de facto part of Islamic Iran.”
“Maybe,” said Lincoln. “There are other hair triggers as well. For example, the fifteen million Azeris in the northern provinces of Iran. If they decide to secede, Iran will fight to hold them. And the five million ethnic Caucasians in Turkey will surely fight with their Iranian kin. That puts Iran and Turkey at war with one another. And if the Caucasians fight for independence, chances are good the North Caucasus will be ripped apart by other groups looking to resolve ages-old strife. The Ossetians and Ingush, the Ossetians and the Georgians, the Abkhazians and the Georgians, the Checkens and the Cossacks, the Chechens and the Laks, the Azeris and the Lezgins.”
“What’s frustrating,” said Colon, “‘is that both Bob Herbert’s team at Op-Center and Grady Reynolds’s team at the CIA agree with my own people. Damascus probably had nothing to do with blowing up the dam. They’d have to be insane to cut off more than half their own water supply.”
“Maybe they want to generate international sympathy,” Burkow said. “Videos and photographs of thirsty babies and dying old people would give Syria an instant image-remake. It would help to turn United States sympathy and foreign aid away from Turkey and Israel to them.”
“It would also cause the much larger and better-armed Turkish Army to come marching down their throats,” Colon replied. “This dam incident is an act of war. In such a war, the U.S. military and our financial institutions would be obliged by NATO treaty to support Turkey. Israel would also support the Turks, especially if it gave them a chance to hit Syria.”
“Only if Syria rises to the challenge of war,” Burkow said. “Turkey might mass an army on the Syrian border. So might Syria. But if Syria chooses not to reply, there’ll be no war.”
“And the Arab world would consider them dishonored,” Colon said. “No, Steve, that’s just too Machiavellian. This makes more sense if it’s the work of Syrian Kurds.”
“Why would the Kurds seek to cause an international confrontation?” asked the President. “They’ve been desperate enough to attack host nations. But would they do something on this scale?”
“We’ve been expecting the different Kurdish nationals to unite for some time,” said Larry Rachlin. “Otherwise, they run the risk of getting picked off separately. This could be that unification.”
“Kurdistan in diaspora,” said Lincoln.
“Exactly,” said Rachlin.
“The truth is, Steve,” said Lincoln, “General Vanzandt is right to worry about what the Kurds might do. As things stand, they’re among the most persecuted people on Earth. Distributed throughout Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, they’re actively oppressed by all three governments. Until 1991, they weren’t even allowed to use their own language in Turkey. Under pressure from the other NATO nations, Ankara reluctantly granted them that but nor more. Over twenty thousand Turks have been killed since the rebels started fighting for sovereignty in 1984, and the Kurds are still banned from forming groups of any sort. I’m not just talking about political parties, but even choral clubs or literary societies. If there were a war, the Kurds would inevitably be part of the fighting, and then they’d also be part of the peace process. It’s the only way they can ever hope to get autonomy. ”
The President turned to Vanzandt. “We have to support the Turks. And we also have got to prevent this thing from turning the other way, into Greece and Bulgaria.”
Agreed,” said Vanzandt.
“So we’ve got to try and contain this before the Syrians and Turks go at it,” said the President. “Av, what are the chances that the Turks will enter Syria to hunt the bombers?”
“Well, Ankara is pretty upset,” Lincoln said, “but I don’t think they’ll go over the border. At least, not in force.”
“Why not?” said Vanzandt. “They’ve ignored national sovereignty before. In 1996 they mounted some pretty bloody cross-border air attacks on Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq.”
“We’ve always believed that Turkey was acting with Iraqi approval in that case,” said CIA Director Rachlin. “Since the U.S. wouldn’t let Saddam attack the Kurds, he let the Turks do it.”
“Anyway,” said Lincoln, “there’s another reason the Turks are wary of going against Syria. Back in 1987, Turkey discovered that Abdullah Ocalan, the Kurdish guerrilla leader, was living in Damascus. He was sitting in his apartment and ordering attacks on villages in Turkey. Ankara asked Damascus to let a strike team in so they could take him. All Syria had to do was stay out of the way. But Syria didn’t want to stir things up with the Syrian Kurds, so they refused. The Turks came very close to ordering a strike team into Damascus.”
“Why didn’t they?” the President asked.
“They were afraid that Syria had tipped Ocalan off,”‘ Lincoln said. “The Turks didn’t want to raid the building and not find him there. It would have been politically embarrassing, to say the least.”
“I’d say that this dam blast is a helluva lot more provocative than what was happening in 1987,” Vanzandt remarked.
“It is,” said Lincoln, “but the problem is the same. What if it turns out that Turkish Kurds did the hands-on work, not the Syrian Kurds? Turkey attacks Syria looking for enemies there, and it turns out their own Kurds were responsible. Syria’s stock rises in the international forum and Turkey’s plummets. Turkey won’t risk that kind of an ambush.”
“You’ve got to remember, Mr. President,” said Defense Secretary Colon, “this explosion hurts Damascus as much as it does Ankara. My feeling is that it’s the unified Kurds who have turned up the heat. They’re trying to trigger a war between Turkey and Syria by forcing Turkey to enter Syria looking for terrorists. And the Kurds will keep applying pressure until they get a major incursion.”