fiction, if they notice science at all, simply deplore it-an attitude very chichi in
the anti-intellectual atmosphere of today. But we will never get out of the mess we
are in by wringing our hands.
Let me make one flat-footed prediction of the science-fiction type. Like all
scenarios this one has assumptions-variables treated as constants. The primary
assumption is that World War Three will hold off long enough-ten, twenty, thirty
years-for this prediction to work out. . . plus a secondary assumption that the
human race will not find some other way to blunder into ultimate disaster.
Prediction: In the immediate future-by that I mean in the course of the
naval careers of the class of ’73- there will be nuclear-powered, constant-boost
spaceships-ships capable of going to Mars and back in a
couple of weeks-and these ships will be armed with Buck-Rogersish death rays.
Despite all treaties now existing or still to be signed concerning the peaceful use
of space, these spaceships will be used in warfare. Space navies will change beyond
recognition our present methods of warfare and will control the political shape of
the world for the foreseeable future. Furthermore-and still more important-these new
spaceships will open the Solar System to colonization and will eventually open the
rest of this Galaxy.
I did not say that the United States will have these ships. The present
sorry state of our country does not permit me to make such a prediction. In the
words of one of our most distinguished graduates in his The Influence of Sea Power
on History: “Popular governments are not generally favorable to military
expenditures, however necessary-”
Every military officer has had his nose rubbed in the wry truth of Admiral
Mahan’s observation. I first found myself dismayed by it some forty years ago when I
learned that I was expected to maintain the ship’s battery of USS ROPER in a state
of combat readiness on an allowance of less than a dollar a day- with World War Two
staring down our throats.
The United States is capable of developing such spaceships. But the mood
today does not favor it. So I am unable to predict that we will be the nation to
spend the necessary R&D money to build such ships.
(Addressed to a plebe midshipman:)
Mister, how long is it to graduation?
Sixty-two days? Let’s make it closer than that. I have . . . 7.59, just
short of eight bells. Assuming graduation for ten in the morning that gives.. .
5,320,860 seconds to graduation.. . and I have less than 960 seconds in which to say
what I want to say.
(To the Brigade at large:) Why are you here?
(To a second plebe:)
Mister, why are you here?
Never mind, son; that’s a rhetorital question. You are here to become a
naval officer. That’s why this Academy was founded. That is why all of you are here:
to become naval officers. If that is not why you are here, you’ve made a bad
mistake. But I speak to the overwhelming majority who understood the oath they took
on becoming midshipmen and look forward to the day when they will renew that oath as
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commissioned officers.
But why would anyone want to become a naval officer?
In the present dismal state of our culture there is little prestige attached
to serving your country; recent public opinion polls place military service far down
the list.
It can’t be the pay. No one gets rich on Navy pay. Even a 4-star admiral is
paid much less than top executives in other lines. As for lower ranks the typical
naval officer finds himself throughout his career just catching up from the
unexpected expenses connected with the last change of duty when another change of
duty causes a new financial crisis. Then, when he is about fifty, he is passed over
and retires. . . but he can’t really retire because he has two kids in college and
one still to go. So he has to find a job . . . and discovers that jobs for men his
age are scarce and usually don’t pay well.
Working conditions? You’ll spend half your life away from your family. Your