“Please do.” (Mike almost purred.)
“Mike amigo, do you also tout horse races?”
“I often calculate odds on horse races; the civil service computermen frequently program such requests. But the results are so at variance with expectations that I have concluded either that the data are too meager, or the horses or riders are not honest. Possibly all three. However, I can gve you a formula which will pay a steady return if played consistently.”
Prof looked eager. “What is it? May one ask?”
“One may. Bet the leading apprentice jockey to place. He is always given good mounts and they carry less weight. But don’t bet him on the nose.”
“‘Leading apprentice’ . . . hmm. Manuel, do you have the correct time?”
“Prof, which do you want? Get a bet down before post time? Or settle what we set out to?”
“Unh, sorry. Please carry on. ‘Leading apprentice–‘”
“Mike, I gave you a recording last night.” I leaned close to pickups and whispered: “Bastille Day.”
“Retrieved, Man.”
“Thought about it?”
“In many ways. Wyoh, you speak most dramatically.”
“Thank you, Mike.”
“Prof, can you get your mind off ponies?”
“Eh? Certainly, I am all ears.”
“Then quit doing odds under your breath; Mike can do them faster.”
“I was not wasting time; the financing of. . . joint ventures such as ours is always difficult. However, I shall table it; I am all attention.”
“I want Mike to do a trial projection. Mike, in that recording, you heard Wyoh say we had to have free trade with Terra. You heard Prof say we should clamp an embargo on shipping food to Terra. Who’s right?”
“Your question is indeterminate, Man.”
“What did I leave out?”
“Shall I rephrase it, Man?”
“Sure. Give us discussion.”
“In immediate terms Wyoh’s proposal would be of great advantage to the people of Luna. The price of foodstuffs at catapult head would increase by a factor of at least four. This takes into account a slight rise in wholesale prices on Terra, ‘slight’ because the Authority now sells at approximately the free market price. This disregards subsidized, dumped, and donated foodstuffs, most of which come from the large profit caused by the controlled low price at catapult head. I will say no more about minor variables as they are swallowed by major ones. Let it stand that the immediate effect here would be a price increase of the close order of fourfold.”
“Hear that, Professor?”
“Please, dear lady. I never disputed it.”
“The profit increase to the grower is more than fourfold because, as Wyoh pointed out, he now must buy water and other items at controlled high prices. Assuming a free market throughout the sequence his profit enhancement will be of the close order of sixfold. But this would be offset by another factor: Higher prices for exports would cause higher prices for everything consumed in Luna, goods and labor. The total effect would be an enhanced standard of living for all on the close order of twofold. This would be accompanied by vigorous effort to drill and seal more farming tunnels, mine more ice, improve growing methods, all leading to greater export. However, the Terran Market is so large and food shortage so chronic that reduction in profit from increase of export is not a major factor.”
Prof said, “But, Señor Mike, that would only hasten the day that Luna is exhausted!”
“The projection was specified as immediate, Señor Professor. Shall I continue in longer range on the basis of your remarks?”
“By all means!”
“Luna’s mass to three significant figures is seven point three six times ten to the nineteenth power tonnes. Thus, holding other variables constant including Lunar and Terran populations, the present differential rate of export in tonnes could continue for seven point three six times ten to the twelfth years before using up one percent of Luna–round it as seven thousand billion years.”
“What! Are you sure?”
“You are invited to check, Professor.”
I said, “Mike, this a joke? If so, not funny even once!”
“It is not a joke, Man.”
“Anyhow,” Prof added, recovering, “it’s not Luna’s crust we are shipping. It’s our lifeblood–water and organic matter. Not rock.”