And 1m right, 1m always right.
“Wait a minute. Seems to me a big company would have to have insurance.
“Contrariwise. A really big corporation begins to resemble a statistical universe.
“Hub?
“Never mind. I got interested in something elsecycles. Cycles are everything, Meade. And everywhere. The tides. The seasons. Wars. Love. Everybody knows that in the spring the young man’s fancy lightly turns to what the girls never stopped thinking about, but did you know that it runs in an eighteen-year-plus cycle as well? And that a girl born at the wrong swing of the curve doesn’t stand nearly as good a chance as her older or younger sister?
“What? Is that why I’m a doddering old maid?
“You’re twenty-five?” He pondered. “Maybe but your chances are picking up again; the curve is swinging up. Any how, remember you are just one statistic; the curve applies to the group. Some girls get married every year anyhow.
“Don’t call me a statistic.
“Sorry. And marriages match up with acreage planted to wheat, with wheat cresting ahead. You could almost say that planting wheat makes people get married.
“Sounds silly.
“It is silly. The whole notion of cause-and-effect is probably superstition. But the same cycle shows a peak in house building right after a peak in marriages, every time.
“Now that makes sense.
“Does it? How many newlyweds do you know who can afford to build a house? You might as well blame it on wheat acreage. We don’t know why; it just is.
“Sun spots, maybe?
“You can correlate sun spots with stock prices, or Columbia River salmon, or women’s skirts. And you are just as much justified in blaming short skirts for sun spots as you are in blaming sun spots for salmon. We don’t know. But the curves go on just the same.
“But there has to be some reason behind it.
“Does there? That’s mere assumption. A fact has no ‘why.’ There it stands, self demonstrating. Why did you take your clothes off today?
She frowned. “That’s not fair.
“Maybe not. But I want to show you why I’m worried.
He went into the bedroom, came out with a large roll of tracing paper. “We’ll spread it on the floor. Here they are, all of them. The 54-year cycle see the Civil War there? See how it matches in? The 18 & % year cycle, the 9-plus cycle, the 41-month shorty, the three rhythms of sun spots everything, all combined in one grand chart. Mississippi River floods, fur catches in Canada, stock market prices, marriages, epidemics, freight-car loadings, bank clearings, locust plagues, divorces, tree growth, wars, rainfall, earth magnetism, building construction patents applied for, murders, you name it; I’ve got it there.
She stared at the bewildering array of wavy lines. “But, Potty, what does it mean?
“It means that these things all happen, in regular rhythm, whether we like. it or not. It means that when skirts are due to go up, all the stylists in Paris can’t make ’em go down
It means that when prices are going down, all the controls and supports and government planning can’t make ’em go up.” He pointed to a curve. “Take a look at the grocery ads
Then turn to the financial page and read how the Big Brains try to double-talk their way out of it. It means that when an epidemic is due, it happens, despite all the public health efforts. It means we’re lemmings.
She pulled her lip. “I don’t like it. 1 am the master of my fate,’ and so forth. I’ve got free will, Potty. I know I have I can feel it.
“I imagine every little neutron in an atom bomb feels the same way. He can go spung or he can sit still, just as he pleases. But statistical mechanics work out anyhow. And the bomb goes off which is what I’m leading up to. See anything odd there, Meade?
She studied the chart, trying not to let the curving lines confuse her. “They sort of bunch up over at the right end.
“You’re dern tootin’ they do! See that dotted vertical line
That’s right now and things are bad enough. But take a look at that solid vertical; that’s about six months from now and that’s when we get it. Look at the cycles, the long ones, the short ones, all of them. Every single last one of them reaches either a trough or a crest exactly on or almost on that line.