Unlike many other autonomous regions throughout the old Soviet Union,
Ukraine had few internal ethnic conflicts. Most of the region’s large
Tatar populations had been forcibly resettled in Central Asia during the
1940s; the only real ethnic hostilities remaining were those between
Ukrainians and Russians. Eastern Ukraine had a high percentage of
Russians in the population, most of whom favored strong ties with
Moscow; from the few reports coming out of Russia to the West, strongly
nationalistic Ukrainians had precipitated a blood-bath among ethnic
Russians, killing hundreds of thousands–perhaps millions–and sending
millions more fleeing across the border into the already devastated
lands of the Russian Federation.
Besides that, the old dispute between Kiev and Moscow over the ownership
of the Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea Fleet remained. With Russia
involved in its civil war, Ukraine appeared poised to settle the issue
once and for all. .. by threat if possible, by military force if
necessary. According to the most recent intelligence available to the
Jefferson battle group, the Ukrainian Fifth and Seventh National Armies
were in position at Odessa and at Melitopol, ready to move in and seize
the Crimea from its Russian caretakers. Amphibious landing craft were
being gathered at Odessa and at both Ocakov and Svobodnyj Port at the
mouth of the Dnieper, lending credence to CIA and U.S. Naval
Intelligence predictions that an invasion of the Crimea–both overland
across the narrow isthmus to the north and by sea, along the beaches
north of Sevastopol–was imminent.
Though distracted, the Russians had been trying their best to bolster
their defenses in the Crimea. Since Ukraine blocked all approaches
across the isthmus, their main line of communication ran across the
narrow straits of Kerch, from an arm of the Russian Federation that
flanked the Black and Azov Seas from Novoazovsk to the Georgian frontier
at Gagra. Most of that bolstering had taken the form of military
flights–transports and air escorts–flying in from Krasnodar. No one
was quite sure at the moment whether Red or Blue forces held the upper
hand, either in the Crimea or at Krasnodar. For a time, there’d been
speculation among U.S. intelligence officers that those flights out of
Krasnodar were in fact an invasion, one civil-war faction moving in to
take Sevastopol away from the other in a three-cornered tug-of-war
between Reds, Blues, and Ukrainians. So far, though, there was no
indication that this was the case. Supply flights were moving in and out
of the various Crimean military and commercial airfields with an almost
clock-like regularity, and so far the Ukrainian forces had not attempted
to hinder them. .. or to deliver the expected attack on the peninsula’s
defenders.
But the situation was becoming more dangerous–explosively so–day by
day. If the northern half of the Black Sea, from Odessa to Gagra, became
a war zone, it would be difficult, perhaps impossible, for the UN-U.S.
forces in the area to stay clear of the fighting.
And now, three days after the accidental sinking of a Russian sub in the
southern Black Sea, a Russian general named Boychenko, the de facto
military ruler of the Crimean Peninsula, had just offered to surrender
military control of the district to the United Nations. One of
Boychenko’s people had approached the U.S. ambassador to the UN with the
proposal during discussions of the return of the Russian submariners now
aboard the Jefferson.
“I really wonder if it’s our interests that are being served here,”
Scott said. “Let’s put this in perspective. First off, Boychenko is the
Military Governor of the Crimea. After Krasilnikov declared martial law
during the coup against Leonov, he became what amounts to the absolute
ruler of the entire Crimean region. We’re not talking about some small
unit commander wanting to turn over a few pieces of heavy artillery
here. This is the equivalent of having an entire country ask for UN
intervention.”
Lloyd nodded agreement. “Admiral Scott’s right,” he said. “It’s
completely unprecedented. If the UN accepts this arrangement, they’re in
effect declaring the Crimea to be under the authority–and the
protection–of the United Nations Security Council.”
“That’s what Boychenko’s counting on,” Scott went on. “The only reason
he’s decided to make this offer is the fact that he’s got a Ukrainian