are naming it, incidentally, Operation John Paul Jones. Those of you up
on your Navy history will remember that after the American Revolution,
John Paul Jones accepted a commission as a rear admiral with the Russian
navy, under Catherine the Great. It was a difficult period in his life,
one during which he was forced to serve under the orders of a foreign
sovereign. It was also, I might add, a time when he was struggling
against adverse politics as much as he was against any maritime enemy.
“Now, here’s the gouge. Our initial orders call for MEU-25 to reembark
its Marine forces and join this battle group. Together, we will take up
a new position, designated Victor Station, one hundred miles south of
Sevastopol. Technically, we are still responsible for the Georgian
no-fly zone, but in practice we’re going to ignore it, at least until
additional forces join us. The Marines will remain aboard ship as a
mobile reserve until the UN decides where they may be best employed. One
possibility now being discussed is a Marine amphibious landing north of
Sevastopol. This landing would be aimed at securing the port facilities
at Sevastopol, the large airport inland at Simferopol, and,
incidentally, denying the Ukrainians a landing beach on the Crimea’s
west coast. The idea is that if the Ukrainians know we’re already
ashore, they’ll give up on their plans as a bad business.”
Tarrant looked down at his notes on the podium. “At this time, there are
still some details to be worked out with Boychenko and his people. A UN
diplomatic mission is on its way to handle the final negotiations. Until
those are completed, our role is mostly passive. We’re here to show
Boychenko–and the Ukrainians–that the UN has a carrier battle group in
its pocket to back up the surrender agreement when and if it is signed.”
He spread his hands and gave the room a wintry smile. “What happens
after that is anybody’s guess. When I know what our role is, I’ll let
you in on it. Questions?”
Hands went up. Tarrant acknowledged Captain Henry Dorset, the new CO of
the Aegis cruiser Shiloh. “Sir, how are the Ukrainians going to react to
this? I mean, if they really are claiming ownership of the Crimea,
aren’t they going to be pretty damned pissed at the UN stepping in like
this?”
Tarrant didn’t answer, but Sykes, standing to the side with his arms
folded, nodded. “It’ll certainly complicate the whole issue,” the
intelligence officer said. “The best guess we can make is that Kiev will
try putting political pressure on the UN as soon as the surrender goes
through. Exactly how they’ll frame it. .. well, that could go a lot of
different ways. They might try to press their claim directly, or they
might come forward with an offer of taking the lion’s share of the
peacekeeping burden themselves, possibly in the name of looking out for
Ukrainian nationals.”
“It all comes to the same thing in the end,” Tarrant added. “It’ll be
critical that the surrender and the transition to UN control both go
smoothly, because you can bet that if there’s any kind of
trouble–riots, or another neo-Soviet mutiny, or whatever–the Kiev
government will jump in with both feet. They could claim they’re moving
into the Crimea simply to stabilize the region or to protect Ukrainian
nationals.”
“Do you think the UN will go along with their demands?” Dorset pressed.
“That will depend on who the Special Envoy is, and what kind of
instructions he has from the Secretary General,” Tarrant replied. “I’d
say the odds are that the UN will want to keep the Crimea an
internationally controlled zone, at least over the short haul. They have
a vested interest in looking strong, well organized, and tough enough to
make this whole thing work. But that’s just my read on it.”
“A lot will depend on just how Ukraine applies pressure,” Sykes added.
“It may amount to nothing more than saber-rattling, or they could try
testing the UN’s resolve directly with an attack. None of us have
crystal balls good enough to make any really solid predictions right
now. Hell, Boychenko might not go through with the surrender after all,