perceived a united Pacific Rim standing against them. Then they would be
desperate to gain a toehold in this area, which could only help us gain
valuable trade concessions.”
“So we unite the region against both the Americans and China!”
“Not just yet. Remember, even after the Americans leave, we will still
have to live with China. Better, perhaps, to pretend to believe China’s story
for now. Place them in debt to us for our cooperation, assist them in
persuading the others. That could be more useful to us in the long run.”
“But the Spratly Islands! The oil! That is our property, Bien! You
suggest we just sit idly by while America and China apportion out our rights?”
“No, of course not. But another approach might work just as well.”
Bien talked for another fifteen minutes, explaining a plan that his
eight-year-old son would have understood in five minutes. Finally, Ngyugen
started nodding.
CHAPTER 16
Monday, 1 July
1600 local (Zulu -7)
cvic
USS Jefferson
“You’re certain this will work?” Tombstone asked the Intelligence
Officer.
“If it were certain, it wouldn’t be intelligence,” Lab Rat replied wryly.
“High probability, Admiral, based on the patterns we’ve observed, but no
guarantees.”
Tombstone sighed. “No guarantees if we don’t do something, either.”
“Exactly. At least this plan takes advantage of what we do know about
the Chinese.”
“It sounds too simple.”
“Simple doesn’t mean easy. Timing is everything on this.” Lab Rat held
up his hand, ticking the points off on his fingers. “We know that the attacks
are occurring while we have aircraft in the area. Coincidental? Probably
not. Presumably, someone intends to make it look like the U.S. is
responsible, especially since it’s happened more than once. That leads me to
the second point.” Lab Rat held up the next finger.
“How do they know when we’re in the area? Couple of possibilities,
offhand. First, satellites. A possibility, especially if they have
long-range Tomahawks on alert the entire time, but not a high probability,
since the reaction time is so fast. Remember, though, that our satellite
coverage may be of intense interest to them. This would be important to them
because a satellite might catch the missile in the process of launching, which
would completely blow their cover. So I’m looking at our satellite coverage,
not theirs.
“The second possibility is surveillance of some sort. But we haven’t
detected surface ships or aircraft at the time of every incident. Maybe the
submarine, but I doubt it. It’s too slow and has too low a horizon.
Third–and my favorite possibility–reports by the sites themselves of visuals
on American aircraft. Now that makes sense!”
“I’m not sure I agree completely,” Tombstone said reflectively. “There’s
always the possibility that they just understand how carrier flight ops work,
and are taking their chances that we’ll fly by to look at their rocks during
cycle times.”
“A possibility, of course, but one that leaves too much open to chance.
First, what if we’d changed flight cycle time, for whatever reason? Fouled
deck, you name it–a thousand things can throw a flight schedule off. Second,
even if they know when we’re launching aircraft, they can’t know exactly where
the fighters are headed. We don’t even know that, other than they’re headed
for CAP stations with a few surveillance checkpoints along the way. No, too
much to chance. Remember, there are three reported incidents. Every one took
place when our assets were in the area. More importantly, none took place
when we weren’t there.”
“Sounds like the best way to avoid more incidents is to pack up and go
home,” Tombstone said wearily. “That’s not an option, by the way.”
“But there’s more to this problem, Admiral. Remember, we’re just up to
the second step–the timing. The next factor to consider is the attacking
platform.”
“I thought we’d agreed that it was long-range cruise missiles,” Batman
said. “That’s the pretext I used for getting the JAST birds out here,
anyway.”
“That’s one possibility. Remember, there’s nothing that says all three
attacks were done by the same means. Additionally, you know how unpredictable
atmospheric conditions are out here. Could be we just thought we saw
low-fliers, just like the E-2 picked up those ghosts the other day. Some