Now the question becomes: how many of the mares are of A) breeding quality; and B) breeding age?
At a guesstimate again based on experience, we have around 1/3 or 100 mares that are too old for breeding. Some mares are successfully bred into their twenties but as the years pile on the chances of a successful breeding starts going down. If a mare has never been bred, something common with riding stock, the chances of successfully breeding her over the age of 17-18 approaches zero. Note, this comment is for mares that have never been bred only. While successful breeding difficulties do increase with the mare’s age they do not rule out breeding entirely. Secretariat’s dam was 18 when she dropped him and I don’t know anyone who will argue about his quality. Mind, breeding older never-before-bred mares has been done, and it can be done, but the risk of losing both mare and foal are very high even when you can get the mare bred in the first place.
This leaves us with 200 mares, a goodly number, but…
Another guesstimate gives us 50 of these remaining mares as being under four years old. They can be bred, but as with the older mares, this is risky. Better let them grow up a bit.
Now we’ve got 150 mares to breed. How many are worth breeding? Some have conformation faults so great that no breeder seeking usable horses would think of breeding them. Some have temperament problems and should not be bred. The general rate of successful breeding—i.e., the mare is bred, carries, and delivers a live foal—runs around 75%. (I’m being generous here–the more normal rate for estimating is 60%). If we breed all 150 despite confirmation questions, we could expect 112 live births. By the time they are one year old, this number will be reduced to 100 or less due to birth defects, accidents, infections, and injuries Grantville’s vets can no longer control. Remember also, these mares are of many different breeds and the immediately available up-time stallions are of just three breeds. This is not a good case for most these mares breeding true to their own type. The reestablishment of any up-time breed is therefore chancy due to the lack of numbers.
Another wet blanket is the problem of several of the up-time breeds having multiple, distinct body types. As mentioned above, the Quarterhorse has divided into three body types. I’ve heard endless lectures from a friend on “old-type” vs. “new type” Morgans and even I can see the differences. One would think that Thoroughbreds would not change body type much, as they have continued to be used for racing. Not so. On a long, warm afternoon several years ago I had the privilege to be seated amongst a group of elderly Thoroughbred breeders while watching Grand Prix Jumping. What interested me was their agreement—and agreement among two or more breeders on anything is rare—that today’s Thoroughbreds do not resemble those of forty or more years ago. This sent me off to look up some old pictures. The Thoroughbreds that most closely resembled the old horses were those bred for jumping and dressage, not for racing.
Chancy or not, we also have to take a very long and hard look at what our up-time horses have to offer in improvements over the existing European stock. Unfortunately the answer to that is “Not much.” Europe at this time is full of horses well suited to their uses.
Please remember: in the 17th century horses were not a hobby. Life and death could and did ride on their backs. A moderate quality riding horse would be expected to do forty miles a day for several days. Many of today’s horses are physically unable to cover twenty miles a day without a day or so of rest. And before I have all the horse folks on my neck, yes, it can be strictly a matter of conditioning. Unfortunately I’ve seen and dealt with a lot of stock that physically could not be conditioned to even that level. Go out and look at your horses and try to see them through the eyes of a 17th century horseman. What does your horse offer that he cannot find among his own down-time horses?