“Uncle Petya?” Alekseyev nodded. “He was commissar with my father’s division on the drive to Vienna. He often visited our home when I was young. He is well?”
“No, he is old and sick. He says that the attack on the West is madness. The ramblings of an old man, perhaps, but his war record is distinguished, and because of that I want your evaluation of our chances. I will not inform on you, General. Too many people are fearful of telling us-we of the Politburo-the truth. But this is a time for that truth. I need your professional opinion. If I can trust you to give it to me, you can trust me not to harm you for it.” The entreaty ended as a harsh command.
Alekseyev looked his guest hard in the eyes. The charm was gone now. The blue was the color of ice. There was danger here, danger even for a general officer, but what the man had said was true.
“Comrade, we plan on a rapid campaign. The projections are that we can reach the Rhein in two weeks. Those are actually more conservative than our plans of only five years ago. NATO has improved its readiness, particularly its antitank capabilities. I would say three weeks is more realistic, depending on the degree of tactical surprise and the many imponderables present in war.”
“So the key is surprise?”
“The key is always surprise,” Alekseyev answered at once. He quoted Soviet doctrine exactly. “Surprise is the greatest factor in war. There are two kinds, tactical and strategic. Tactical surprise is an operational art. A killed unit commander can generally achieve it. Strategic surprise is attained on the political level. That is your mission, not mine, and it is far more important than anything we in the Army can do. With true strategic surprise, if our maskirovka works, yes, we will almost certainly win on the battlefield.”
“And if not?”
Then we have murdered eight children for nothing, Alekseyev thought. And what part did this charming fellow have in that? “Then we might fail. Can you answer me a question? Can we split NATO politically?”
Sergetov shrugged, annoyed at being caught in one of his own traps. “As you said, Pavel Leonidovich, there are many imponderables. If it fails, then what?”
“Then the war will become a test of will and a test of reserves. We should win. It is far easier for us to reinforce our troops. We have more trained troops, more tanks, more aircraft close to the zone of action than do the NATO powers.”
“And America?”
“America is on the far side of the Atlantic Ocean. We have a plan for closing the Atlantic. They can fly troops to Europe-but only troops, not their weapons, not their fuel. Those require ships, and ships are easier to sink than it is to destroy a fighting division. If full surprise is not achieved, that operational area will become quite important.”
“And what of NATO surprises?”
The General leaned back. “By definition you cannot predict surprises, Comrade. That is why we have the intelligence organs, to reduce or even eliminate them. That is why our plans allow for a number of contingencies. For example, what if surprise is totally lost and NATO attacks first?” He shrugged. “They would not go far, but they would upset things. What still concerns me are nuclear responses. Again, more of a political question.”
“Yes.” Sergetov’s worry was for his elder son. When the reserves were mobilized, Ivan would climb back into his tank, and he didn’t need to be a Politburo member to know where that tank would be sent. Alekseyev had only daughters. Lucky man, Sergetov thought. “So, this unit goes to Germany?”
“The end of the week.”
“And you?”
“During the initial phase we are tasked to be the strategic reserve for CINC-West’s operations, plus to defend the Motherland against possible incursions from the southern flank. That does not concern us greatly. To threaten us, Greece and Turkey must cooperate. They will not, unless our intelligence information is completely false. My commander and I will later execute Phase 2 of the plan, and seize the Persian Gulf. Again, this will not be a problem. The Arabs are armed to the teeth, but there are not so many of them. What is your son doing now?”
“The elder? He’s ending his first year of graduate school in languages. Top of his class-Middle Eastern languages.” Sergetov was surprised at himself for not thinking of this.
“I could use a few more of those. Most of our Arabic language people are Muslims themselves, and for this task I would prefer people more reliable.”
“And you do not trust the followers of Allah?”
“In war I trust no one. If your son is good at these languages, I will find a use for him, be sure of that.” The formal agreement was made with nods, and each wondered if the other had planned it that way.
NORFOLK, VIRGINIA
“Progress hasn’t ended as scheduled,” Toland said. “Satellite and other reconnaissance shows that the Soviet forces in Germany and western Poland are still together in operational formations living in the field. There are indications that rail transport is being marshaled at various points in the Soviet Union-that is, at points consistent with plans to move large numbers of troops west.
“Soviet Northern Fleet this morning sortied six submarines. The move is ostensibly a scheduled rotation to replace their operational squadron in the Med, so for the next two weeks they’ll have more subs in the North Atlantic than is normally the case.”
“Tell me about the group rotating out of the Med,” CINCLANT ordered.
“A Victor, an Echo, three Foxtrots, and a Juliet. They all spent the last week tied alongside their tender at Tripoli-the tender stayed put, in Libyan territorial waters. They will clear the Straits of Gibraltar about 1300 Zulu tomorrow.”
“They’re not waiting for the new group to relieve them on station first?”
“No, Admiral. Usually they do wait for the replacement group to enter the Med, but about a third of the time they do it this way. That gives us twelve Soviet subs in transit north and south, plus a November and three more Foxtrots that have been exercising with the Cuban Navy. At the moment they are all tied alongside also-we checked up on them this morning, that data is two hours old.”
“Okay, what about Europe?”
“No further information on Mr. Falken. The NATO intelligence services have run up against a blank wall, and there’s been nothing new from Moscow, not even a date for the public trial. The Germans say that they have no knowledge whatever of the guy. It’s just as though he appeared fully grown at age thirty-one when he started his business. His apartment was taken apart one stick at a time. No incriminating evidence was found-”
“Okay, Commander, give us your professional gut feeling.”
“Admiral, Falken is a Soviet sleeper agent who was inserted into the Federal Republic thirteen years ago and used for very few missions, or more probably none at all, until this.”
“So you think this whole thing’s a Soviet intelligence operation. No big surprise there. What’s its objective?” CINCLANT asked sharply.
“Sir, at the very least they are trying to put enormous political pressure on West Germany, perhaps to force them out of NATO. At worst-”
“I think we already figured the worst-case scenario out. Nice job, Toland. And I owe you an apology for yesterday. Not your fault that you didn’t have all the information I wanted.” Toland blinked. It was not often that a four-star admiral apologized to a reserve lieutenant-commander in front of other flag officers. “What’s their fleet doing?”
“Admiral, we have no satellite photos of the Murmansk area. Too much cloud cover, but we expect clear weather tomorrow afternoon. The Norwegians are running increased air patrols in the Barents Sea, and they say that, aside from submarines, the Russians have relatively few ships at sea at the moment. Of course, they’ve had relatively few ships at sea for a month.”
“And that can change in three hours,” an admiral noted. “Your evaluation of their fleet readiness?”
“The best it’s been since I’ve been studying them,” Toland replied. “As close to a hundred percent as I’ve ever seen it. As you just said, sir, they can put to sea at any time with almost their whole inventory.”
“If they sortie, we’ll know it quick. I have three subs up there keeping an eye on things,” Admiral Pipes said.
“I talked with the Secretary of Defense right before I came here. He’s going to meet with the President today and request a DEFCON-3 alert, global. The Germans are requesting that we keep Spiral Green in operation until the Russians show signs of easing things off. What do you think the Russians will do, Commander?” CINCLANT asked.
“Sir, we’ll know more later today. The Soviet Party Secretary will be speaking at an emergency meeting of the Supreme Soviet, maybe also at the funeral tomorrow.”