an object in orbit or trajectory. Nevertheless this prediction is as safe
as predicting tomorrow’s sunrise. Anti-aircraft fire never stopped air
attacks; it simply made them expensive. The disadvantage in being at the
bottom of a deep “gravity well” is very great; gravity gauge will be as
crucial in the coming years as wind gauge was in the days when sailing
ships controlled empires. The nation that controls the Moon will control
the Earth — but no one seems willing these days to speak that nasty fact
out loud.
(d) Since 1950 we have done so in several theaters and are doing so as this
is written, in Viet Nam. “Preventive” or “pre-emptive” war seems as
unlikely as ever, no matter who is in the White House. Here is a new
prediction: World War III (as a major, all-out war) will not take place at
least until 1980 and could easily hold off until 2000. This is a very happy
prediction compared with the situation in 1950, as those years of grace may
turn up basic factors which (hopefully!) might postpone disaster still
longer. We were much closer to ultimate disaster around 1955 than we are
today — much closer indeed than we were at the time of the Cuban
Confrontation in 1962. But the public never knew it. All in all, things
look pretty good for survival, for the time being — and that is as good a
break as our ancestors ever had. It was far more dangerous to live in
London in 1664-5 than it is to live in a city threatened by H-bombs today.
(e) Here I fell flat on my face. There has been no break-through in
housing, nor is any now in prospect — instead the ancient, wasteful methods
of building are now being confirmed by public subsidies. The degree of our
backwardness in this field is hard to grasp; we have never seen a modern
house. Think what an automobile would be if each one were custom-built from
materials fetched to your home — what would it look like, what would it do,
and how much would it cost. But don’t set the cost lower than $100,000, nor
the speed higher than 10 m/h, if you want to be realistic about the
centuries of difference between the housing industry and the automotive
industry.
I underestimated ( through wishful thinking ) the power of human stupidity
— a fault fatal to prophecy.
(f) In the meantime spectacular progress has been made in organ transplants
— and the problem of regeneration is related to this one. Biochemistry and
genetics have made a spectacular breakthrough in “cracking the genetic
code.” It is a tiny crack, however, with a long way to go before we will
have the human chromosomes charted and still longer before we will be able
to “tailor” human beings by gene manipulation. The possibility is there —
but not by year 2000. This is probably just as well. If we aren’t bright
enough to build decent houses, are we bright enough to play God with the
architecture of human beings?
(g) Our editor suggested that I had been too optimistic on this one — but I
still stand by it. It is still thirty-five years to the end of the century.
For perspective, look back thirty-five years to 1930 — the American Rocket
Society had not yet been founded then. Another curve, similar to the one
herewith in shape but derived entirely from speed of transportation,
extrapolates to show faster-than-light travel by year 2000. I guess I’m
chicken, for I am not predicting FTL ships by then, if ever. But the
prediction still stands without hedging.
(h) Predicting intelligent life on Mars looks pretty silly after those
dismal photographs. But I shan’t withdraw it until Mars has been thoroughly
explored. As yet we really have no idea — and no data — as to just how
ubiquitous and vaned life may be in this galaxy; it is conceivable that
life as we don’t know it can evolve on any sort of a planet . . . and
nothing in our present knowledge of chemistry rules this out. All the talk
has been about life-as-we-know-it-which means terrestrial conditions.