Heinlein, Robert A – Expanded Universe

the prime factor-as power for farm machinery (obviously) but also for insecticides

and for fertilizers. Since our oil policies in Washington are about as

boneheaded-counterproductive-as they can be, I have no way to guess how much food we

can raise in 2000 A.D. But no one in the United States should be hungry in 2000

A.D.-unless we are conquered and occupied.

7. 1950 The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called “modern art”

will be discussed only by psychiatrists.

1965 No new comment.

1980 One may hope. But art reflects culture and the world is even nuttier

now than it was in 1950; these are the Crazy Years. But, while “fine” art continues

to look like the work of retarded monkeys, commercial art grows steadily better.

8. 1950 Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and

psychoanalysis will be replaced by

a growing, changing “operational psychology” based on measurement and prediction.

1965 No new comment.

1980 This prediction is beginning to come true. Freud is no longer taken

seriously by informed people. More and more professional psychologists are skilled

in appropriate mathematics; most of the younger ones understand inductive

methodology and the nature of scientific confirmation and are trying hard to put

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rigor into their extremely difficult, still inchoate subject. For some of the

current progress see Dr. Pournelle’s book, cited on page 325.

By 2000 A.D. we will know a great deal about how the brain functions . . .

whereas in 1900 what little we knew was wrong.

I do not predict that the basic mystery of psychology-how mass arranged in

certain complex patterns becomes aware of itself-will be solved by 2000 A.D. I hope

so but do not expect it.

9. 1950 Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the

revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish “regeneration,”

i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial

limb.

1965 In the meantime spectacular progress has been made in organ

transplants-and the problem of regeneration is related to this one. Biochemistry and

genetics have made a spectacular breakthrough in “cracking the genetic code.” It is

a tiny crack, however, with a long way to go before we will have the human

chromosomes charted and still longer before we will be able to “tailor” human beings

by gene manipulation. The possibility is there-but not by year 2000. This is

probably just as well. If we aren’t bright enough to build decent houses, are we

bright enough to play God with the architecture of human beings?

1980 I see no reason to change this prediction if you will let me elaborate

(weasel) a little. “The common

cold” is a portmanteau expression for upper respiratory infections which appear to

be caused by a very large number of different viruses. Viruses are pesky things. It

is possible to immunize against them, e.g., vaccination against smallpox, a virus

disease. But there are almost no chemotherapies, medicines, against viruses. That is

why “the common cold” is treated much the same way today as in 1900, i.e., support

the patient with bed rest, liquids, aspirin to make him more comfortable, keep him

warm. This was standard in 1900 and it is still standard in 1980.

It is probable that your body makes antibodies against the virus of any cold

you catch. But this gives you no protection against that virus’s hundreds of close

relatives found in any airport, theater, supermarket, or gust of dust off the

street. In the meantime, while his kinfolk take turns making you miserable, virus #1

has mutated and you have no antibodies against the mutation.

Good news: Oncology (cancer), immunology, hematology, and “the common cold”

turn out to be strongly interrelated subjects; research in all these is pioving

fast-and a real breakthrough in any one might mean a breakthrough in all.

10. 1950 By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar

system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a building.

1965 Our editor suggested that I had been too optimistic on this one-but I

still stand by it. It is still thirty-five years to the end of the century. For